VIEWPOINT: How driverless vehicles will impact fleet and the way we view mobility

Three years ago at a European fleet conference, my colleagues and I agreed that while true autonomous driving was exciting, that’s not much use if we’re only seeing it in car parks and desert experiments in the US. But driverless vehicles will be a reality sooner than we expect.

The technology has progressed quickly since then, as has its uptake, with pilot cities emerging in Asia and the US, and the UK announcing plans for driverless cars to be on the road by spring 2026. The EU has started defining a framework to provide a clear path to driverless vehicles on public roads, with legislation already in place in Germany and driverless vehicles operating in specific zones.

While many of us visualise a driverless taxi or a road trip where everyone can fall asleep, the fleet industry will be first to pioneer the everyday changes, as with many innovations in the automotive space - and they might be more subtle than you expect.

The promise of Mobility-as-a-Service

As challenging as it is to implement an end-to-end MaaS solution successfully, this goal remains at the forefront of OEM and fleet strategies and feels intrinsically linked to the adoption of driverless vehicles.

With the uptick in e-scooters and e-bikes (unfondly remembered as Boris bikes in London), fleet providers have looked to provide a holistic solution to their customers. We have seen some providers deliver pay-by-the-minute car services, and others describe blue-sky visions of passes that unlock these micromobility vehicles alongside public transport as a one-stop-shop for ownership-free mobility.

Integrating driverless vehicles into a MaaS solution naturally points towards autonomous taxis - an evolution of the Uber/Bolt model that enhances availability, much like Waymo in the US. However, the reality is that people - particularly British ones - are often as tied to their cars as they are to their houses. The moment you factor in pets, children or gear-intensive hobbies, the idea of summoning a vehicle on demand loses its appeal. I have none of the above, and my car is still an extension of my home.

So the shift required for MaaS to move into the retail world and reach critical mass (no pun intended) is very much a cultural one.  I expect the fleet industry to lead the way here; we saw it with the first hybrid cars, we’re seeing it with the adoption of BEVs, and we’ll see it with autonomous driving.

Who carries the risk?

As we’ve seen with BEVs, the high costs of emerging technologies mean the average consumer is unlikely to make a driverless car their next upgrade until several generations have passed through the market. Research by McKinsey projects that around 15% of new car sales in Europe will be to shared or subscription-based operators by 2035. Both of these factors point towards autonomous vehicles entering the market via fleets. 

On paper, a fleet of driverless vehicles providing a service makes sense: it’s efficient, there’s a USP, and the increased costs of a new technology should be balanced out by not needing a driver.

In a typical taxi fleet, the responsibility for keeping the vehicle clean, serviced, licensed and so on is with the driver. While this represents a cost, they have control over usage, and are incentivised to make as many trips as they can - even if that means driving around without a passenger to find a fare. Maximising uptime means maximising value to the driver and, in turn, payment to the vehicle’s owner. If the driver is removed, where does that leave us? 

In simple terms, it triggers a transfer of risk, leading to a corresponding increase in the reward necessary to offset it.

We’ve seen from the existing MaaS market that getting this balance right is difficult, and many companies fail to thrive in the current conditions. The closest analogy today is car-sharing models: while driverless cars are expected to improve taxi service efficiency significantly, they are likely to face many of the same challenges currently seen in the MaaS sector.

Depending on the research you use, up to 70% of car-sharing models are failing within their first five years. The reason why is simple: high fixed and operational costs - covering maintenance, insurance, charging/fuel and fleet management - combined with slim margins and challenges in scaling, make this a difficult market to operate in.

Policy, insurance and uncertainty

But there are nuances to consider. Do the Government or local authorities want these schemes to succeed? Do they allow these vehicles access to high-traffic areas where the cars will get the utilisation they need, or are they relegated to low-density locations? This type of policy can drastically impact the use of a service. With the removal of the driver, the risk of under-utilisation is placed entirely on the owner, who might never see the asset and has no control over where it operates.

Another challenge for MaaS is the local insurance market: does it welcome a car-sharing model, or does it increase the risk so much that the costs become prohibitive? The latter is what we are seeing in the UK, for example. Managing coverage across multiple third parties - potentially unknown to the underwriter - while balancing risks such as damage, theft and liability is highly complex. At present, there simply isn’t enough data for insurers to establish a standardised framework. This introduces further uncertainty into the operating model.

Logistics to lead the way?

So perhaps driverless taxis won’t be the start of this chain reaction. Perhaps the use case is a simpler one, such as driverless trucks for logistics. Pilot programmes by Volvo in the US, and Kion across Europe and Asia-Pacific, have shown genuine promise.

Own the data, own the market

In logistics, data is king. This is even more true when considering the impact of autonomous vehicles. Whoever owns or controls the vehicle’s autonomous systems and performance data will effectively own the operational advantage. This marks a new competitive frontier; one defined not by fleet size, but by how efficiently a company can access, analyse and monetise the intelligence its vehicles generate.

This could move the ownership of the asset away from the fleet provider and push it further back into the supply chain. Some strategists are predicting a complete change in the ownership model, whereby OEMs own their assets and move into a true service contract. The OEM provides guaranteed uptime and performance through service contracts, while fleets pay based on usage, uptime, or kilometres driven - rather than owning and depreciating the assets.

It’s an exciting future, and one that could provide the blueprint of an operational model for autonomous vehicles in the personal mobility space.

Conclusion 

Change rarely happens with a big bang, it happens incrementally in the background of our lives. Haulague trucks will start requiring less driver supervision, self driving street cleaners might appear on smaller roads, perhaps food delivery becomes an autonomous service … then suddenly driverless vehicles are fully integrated into our day-to-day. 

While I don't know exactly what this path will look like, I do know that fleet operators and financers will lead the charge on defining how these operating models will work, influencing legislation and, as always, bringing the newest technologies to the everyday user. 

Talk to us

Alfa’s experience delivering efficient operations to complex top-tier lenders means we’re well placed to guide you in achieving your goals around originations, servicing, collections and beyond.

Make an Enquiry | Request a Demo | Learn more about Alfa Systems